Australia Day 2011

It ain’t half hot Mum!

Though it seems Kristina Keneally may be out in the cold soon. Some pundits are claiming it will fall bigtime and are suggesting that the ALP will loose an unprecedented 37 seats. I don’t think so. I have been doing a revisit of my thoughts and I have revised my numbers. In summary this is what I see.

Legislative Assembly Now Predict Change
ALP 50 33 -17
GRN 0 2 2
IND 6 7 1
LIB 24 37 13
NAT 13 14 1

This assessment is based on a review of the seats

Held By Margin Seat Comments Prediction
LIB 19.0 Albury LIB
ALP 28.7 Auburn ALP
NAT 14.5 Ballina NAT
ALP 3.7 Balmain GRN Best Shot GRN
ALP 25.4 Bankstown ALP
NAT 18.9 Barwon NAT
ALP 13.0 Bathurst Fairly Safe ALP
LIB 10.5 Baulkham Hills LIB
LIB 5.1 Bega Likely Retain LIB
ALP 22.4 Blacktown ALP
ALP 11.1 Blue Mountains Watch GRN LIB
NAT 17.3 Burrinjuck NAT
ALP 29.0 Cabramatta Not Safe ALP
ALP 3.9 Camden This Seat Swings LIB
ALP 18.5 Campbelltown ALP
ALP 27.1 Canterbury ALP
LIB 19.1 Castle Hill LIB
ALP 12.4 Cessnock This Seat May Fall ALP
ALP 14.6 Charlestown Watch IND ALP
NAT 11.6 Clarence NAT
NAT 17.6 Coffs Harbour NAT
ALP 7.2 Coogee Watch This Seat LIB
LIB 17.5 Cronulla LIB
LIB 24.7 Davidson LIB
ALP 7.6 Drummoyne Likely Fall LIB
IND 0.9 Dubbo May Go Nats IND
ALP 14.1 East Hills Not Safe ALP
LIB 8.0 Epping LIB
ALP 20.4 Fairfield ALP
ALP 4.9 Gosford Likely Fall LIB
LIB 8.6 Goulburn Likely Retain LIB
ALP 11.1 Granville Watch This Seat ALP
LIB 19.3 Hawkesbury LIB
ALP 8.8 Heathcote Likely Fall LIB
ALP 23.7 Heffron Watch GRN ALP
LIB 16.5 Hornsby LIB
ALP 12.0 Keira ALP
ALP 12.0 Kiama Watch GRN ALP
ALP 17.7 Kogarah ALP
LIB 29.0 Ku-ring-gai LIB
IND 0.1 Lake Macquarie Likely Hold IND
ALP 34.0 Lakemba ALP
LIB 12.4 Lane Cove LIB
NAT 10.0 Lismore NAT
ALP 26.9 Liverpool ALP
ALP 6.9 Londonderry Likely Fall LIB
ALP 11.1 Macquarie Fields Likely Retain ALP
ALP 9.7 Maitland Likely Fall LIB
LIB 21.8 Manly LIB
ALP 16.1 Maroubra ALP
ALP 7.5 Marrickville GRN 2ND CHANCE GRN
ALP 2.7 Menai Likely Fall LIB
ALP 0.8 Miranda Likely Fall LIB
ALP 6.3 Monaro Likely Fall NAT
ALP 25.4 Mount Druitt ALP
ALP 11.1 Mulgoa Likely Retain ALP
NAT 10.1 Murray-Darling Likely Retain NAT
Nat 16.1 Murrumbidgee NAT
NAT 17.4 Myall Lakes NAT
ALP 17.8 Newcastle Likely Fall IND
LIB 19.2 North Shore LIB
IND 30.2 Northern Tablelands IND
ALP 14.4 Oatley Likely Retain ALP
NAT 17.2 Orange NAT
NAT 15.9 Oxley NAT
ALP 13.7 Parramatta Likely Retain ALP
LIB 9.2 Penrith Likely Retain LIB
LIB 29.8 Pittwater LIB
IND 4.5 Port Macquarie Watch NAT IND
LIB 0.1 Port Stephens LIB
ALP 10.1 Riverstone Likely Retain ALP
ALP 10.3 Rockdale Likely Fall LIB
LIB 13.0 Ryde Likely Retain LIB
ALP 26.8 Shellharbour ALP
ALP 15.5 Smithfield Likely Retain ALP
LIB 7.8 South Coast Likely Retain LIB
ALP 15.1 Strathfield Likely Retain ALP
ALP 10.8 Swansea Likely Retain ALP
IND 16.6 Sydney Likely Retain IND
IND 4.8 Tamworth Likely Retain IND
LIB 8.4 Terrigal Likely Retain LIB
ALP 4.9 The Entrance Likely Fall LIB
ALP 14.5 Toongabbie Likely Retain ALP
NAT 3.0 Tweed Likely Retain NAT
NAT 14.7 Upper Hunter NAT
LIB 17.9 Vaucluse LIB
LIB 13.0 Wagga Wagga LIB
LIB 17.3 Wakehurst LIB
ALP 15.8 Wallsend ALP
LIB 21.0 Willoughby LIB
ALP 3.3 Wollondilly Likely Fall LIB
ALP 25.3 Wollongong Watch IND ALP
ALP 6.9 Wyong Likely Fall ALP

There are clearly lots of things I don’t know and have not taken into account. I take the line that third generation Labor voters will find it easier to vote Green than straight out Liberal. Seats with Federal Incumbent Independents may prove interesting as voters may penalise their State Independents for the Federal Independents decision to support a Gillard Led Labor¬†Government.

In 60 days or so we will know how the state has voted, and some of that will be determined by what both parties have to say to the electors in the interim. This is probably the first state election since the rise of social media, and that is bound to have a hand in the play. The Greens appear to be working hard with it, and there is a lot to suggest that users of social media will smell a rat of the parties try to manipulate social media.


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