65 – Crystal Ball Gazing


ALP CORE FLOATERS INDEPENDENT LNP CORE
Auburn Bathurst Dubbo Albury
Balmain ???? Drummoyne Lake Macquarie Barwon
Bankstown Gosford Northern Tablelands Baulkham Hills
Blacktown Heathcote Port Macquarie Burrunjuck
Cabramatta Kiama Sydney Castle Hill
Campletown Londonderry Tamworth Coffs Harbour
Canterbury Mulgoa Cronulla
Cessnock Riverstone Davidson
Charlestown Wollindilli Epping
Coogee Wyong Goulbourn
East Hills Blue Mountains Hawkesbury
Fairfield Camden Hornsby
Granville Kogarah Kuringai
Heffron Menai Lane Cove
Kierra Miranda Murray Darling
Lakemba Monaro Murrumbidgee
Liverpool Oatley Myall Lakes
Macquarie Fields Strathfield North Shore
Maitland The Entrance Orange
Maroubra Oxley
Marrickville Pittwater
Mount Druit Terrigal
Newcastle Vaucluse
Parramatta Wagga Wagga
Rockdale Wakehurst
Shell Harbour Balina Willoughby
Smithfield Bega Penrith
Swansea Clarence Port Stephens
Toongabie Lismore Ryde
Wallsend Upper Hunter South Coast
Wollongong Manly Tweed

Second guessing the election seems a little hard at this stage. There are 93 seats, 31 essentially core ALP seats, 31 core coalition seats. there are 6 Independents who ean left or right and we presume will retain their seats. I am not sure about Heathcote – indeed I am not sure about anything, but  fell like this which is possible, The the coalition will command 49 votes of the 93 which would allow them to form Government.

Balmain is interesting, not just for the cafe set, but because it is the seat most likely to return a green candidate. The fall of the seats in the middle will be the most interesting. I owe a debt to Anthony Green for his analysis which is eminently more profound than mine.

The flack from the Power sale and otrther issues in the campaign will no doubt influence the outcome.

http://media.smh.com.au/national/selections/more-light-shed-on-power-sale-2140461.html

Another issue that hits the press today is the question as to who is writing policy. On the one hand the already well canvassed on this site question of the power sale, and on the other isde the suggestion that the mining industry and the farmers federation are writing policy for the coalition.

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