The ALP have announced the Candidate for the western seat of the Murray Darling, the Dupty Mayor of Broken Hill, Neville Gasmier. The ABC story is here
Currently the seat is held by John Williams for the Nationals with a margin of 10.1%. Anthony Green forecasts the Nationals holding the seat with a swing of 3.3% taking it to a margin of 14.4%. Neville Gasmier believes he can win the seat, and I guess you should if you are going to run, however you would have to wonder.
It may be a long way from Macquarie Street, to Broken Hill, however news travels and I suspect that the people of broken hill are not so far removed the experience of the rest of us to feel that in the absence of any critical local issues that they would counter trend the rest of the state.
It is worth remembering that applying state wide swings across electorates uniformly is not going to be the best assessment. Each electorate will have it’s own result and the result of those results will be the government for the next four years.
Garry Edwards, the Deputy Mayor of Lake Macquarie is running for the Seat of Swansea.Anthony Green sees that as a swing of 1.6% which would allow Robert Coombs for the ALP to hold the seat with a margin of 10.8 %. That seems realistic in this neck of the woods.
Labor will probably lose the election. The question remains who will win it? And the side question remains, “How bad is this power deal???”
Philip Barrington 