At this stage no body beyond Kristina Keneally seems to think that Labor has much chance of a show at the next election. Anthony Green who I have held in high regard on these matters has adjusted the electoral margins based on polling in the Federal Election he seems to think the ALP may end up with as few as 20 seats.
Is this a reasonable prediction. I am inclined to think that there is a long way to go yet.
The sale of the power assets has been a toxic issue for Labour Premiers, and I suspect it may be the same for Kristina Keneally. She prorogued parliament in order to prevent a committee to run an inquiry into the sale, which even the Prime Minister has questions about. She has fought tooth and nail to stop the committee, calling it illegal, unconstitutional etc, and now she intends to appear before the committee along with Eric Roozendaal feeling that will be enough. I don’t think so. To silence the critics she will need to recall parliament so the committee can go ahead without doubt. If she is not prepared to do that then one might conclude that the truth is more toxic than the uproar she is now facing.
It is also worth noting that whilst the ALP is expected to loose a lot of sites, the question remains who will win them. The greens may well pick up a couple, an the independents are likely to hold or improve. The Nats may get a couple back, but will it be enough to topple the labor hold.
47 Seats are Needed to form a Government in the NSW Legislative Assembly. There may be quite a bit of negotiation unless the Libs and the Nats pick up enough between them. Currently the Coalition has 37, Labor 50 and Independents 6. The Coalitions needs to get 10 more seats to form government. I think that is very doable, but by no means a lay down case yet.
The Campaign Matters and it really will have quite a bearing on the result. Issues that may affect the outcome will be how the power inquiry issue proceeds. How the unions respond to this matter. If the coalition, and specifically Barry O’Farrell can present as a prospective premier of the state, looks, bearing and policy. And of course how the media is handled, and how the media handles the reporting of the campaign. I also belie the internet will play a bigger part as people find more information here than previously, and it is a source of information with less controls than traditional media.