Whilst all the experts are plumbing for a 30 seat fall for the ALP I don;t read it that way. I believe the greens will pick up Balmain. There are another six seats held by less that 5% that I believe will got to the Libs. I think there are another six seats which the ALP could loose.
|McBride, Grant||ALP||The Entrance||Going||4.9||LIB|
Clearly we have not had the campaign yet, and there may well be a number of local issues which may have relevance. The loss of 30 seats would require a swing of more like 18% which is more than I read.
The next period will be an opportunity for the Liberal Coalition to convince us that they want Government, that they are capable of Government, and that voting for them will be in our best interests as well as the best interests of the state. The ALP will need to convince the electorate that the purge on sitting members has been sufficient to effect real change.
The scary thing about posting this is that I will be able to look at it in 100 days and realise how wrong I was. It is also interesting to note that 2 Central Coast Seats are in the mix. In the Federal Election the expectation was that they would go to the Coalition, yet the ALP retained both. Presumably the Libs will have thee two seats marked for a special effort.