It is not a lay down misere yet

Premier Kristina Keneally outside Parliament H...
Image by brianapa via Flickr

Reading papers and listening to people in the media, generally one would think that the ALP is a write off for the next State Election. Kristina Keneally is not so sure. In fact I am not so sure that she is wrong either.

You need to hold 47 seats on the lower house to secure the transit of legislation through the house. If Labor lost seven seats, the Greens gained 1 and the Libs pick up six, the mix will be with the independents.

That scenario would be 44 (ALP 43 + GRN 1) to  43 (LIB 30 NAT13)  and 6 in the mix. The six in the mix may be expected to go 4 (LIB) and 2 (ALP).  That ends up being 47:46 with the coalition just sneaking in.

Such an assumption would include the Liberals winning Gosford which I would not guarantee. Certainly in the recent Federal Election the Central Coast did not swing like the rest of the country.

I think the odds are quite good that the independents will do well, and they will own the outcome of the lower chamber.  The upper house will almost certainly have more minority parties getting a voice.

Kristina Keneally is spot on when she says it ain’t over and they are in with a real chance. And with a new face and a new brand they may get another go.

The polls may be bad, but the electorates do the voting and if you expect the Libs to get 10 seats, you have to start identifying which ones they will be. I am sure both parties are working out where they need to spend the money right now.


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