The Victorian Election Results may indicate something, or they may not.
On balance many people thought that the Victorian ALP would just get in, however they just missed out. In Queensland where many thought that the ALP would go, they stayed. Commentary following both results included reference to the NSW ALP and endeavoured to distance their respective State ALP from the NSW ALP.
The Queensland result may well have been different had it happened after the garotting of Kevin 747. I thing the routing of Federal ALP in Queensland during the Federal Election is testament to that.
The Gillard machine has not been going from strength to strength at a federal level.
One of the interesting results in the Victorian Roll was the treading water of the Greens, Minor Parties and Independents. It may be the “push from the bush” in the wake of the Federal Election gave many people second thoughts about where to hand power.
Anthony Green for some time now has been foreshadowing a coalition victory in the NSW election. On April 19 2010 he was suggesting 52-41, which suggests 11 seats changing hands. Link There has been more grime since then, and Barry looks like the preferred Premier.
So why is it that so many of us think that Kristina will get another go.
Basically because when we get into the polling booth we have to vote for someone. We can only in a limited way vote against someone. The Liberal Party has 100 days basically to step up to the plate and tell us that they want to bat, and what they will be batting for.
Otherwise we have the diversity of a Catholic Feminist Theologian for Premier and an Atheist Machiavellian Prime Minister, and more announcements and less government